by Andy Nelson, The Packer
With California off to an early start, Mexico will get a hand in meeting U.S. demand for avocados this Cinco de Mayo.
California volumes should make up a significantly bigger piece of the Cinco de Mayo pie this year than last year, said Rob Wedin, vice president of sales and marketing for Santa Paula, Calif.-based Calavo Growers Inc.
California accounted for about a quarter of all fruit for last year’s holiday, Wedin said. This year should be closer to a third. Rather than falling near the beginning of the California season, as it has the past couple of years, Cinco de Mayo will find the Golden State already in stride.
“California is at a much more mature part of the cycle than last year, with good size and flavor,” Wedin said. “It’s working out pretty well.”
Prices for Cinco de Mayo should stay about where they were the week of March 30, with plenty of promotional opportunities on 48s, 60s and 70s, said Bob Lucy, partner in Del Rey Avocado Co., Fallbrook, Calif.
On March 31, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported prices of $36.25-38.25 for two-layer cartons of hass 48s from Mexico, comparable to last year at the same time.
Mexican avocados were on the small side in early April, with fruit peaking on 48s and smaller, Lucy said. But California growers were shipping a lot of 48s and bigger.
“It should complement Mexico,” Lucy said. “It’s sort of a perfect fit.”
On April 1, Mexican fruit was peaking on 48s and 60s, typical for that time of year, said Emiliano Escobedo, executive director of the Irvine, Calif.-based Hass Avocado Board.
Officially, as of April 1 the board estimates that about 156 million pounds of avocados will ship in the U.S. in the four weeks preceding Cinco de Mayo, up from 150 million pounds last year, Escobedo said.
But he wouldn’t be surprised if that number is higher.
“Seventeen percent more shipped in the first quarter of 2015 than the first quarter of 2014,” he said. “March volumes were really high, which indicates really strong demand. You look at how we’re going, I think the estimate might be a little low.”
A larger percentage of Mexican fruit this year is going to foodservice because of scarring, Wedin said. Fortunately, foodservice demand is high.
“The restaurant business is really strong,” Wedin said. “We’re thankful (scarred fruit) has been able to find good reception.”
With Easter, which falls on April 5, and Cinco de Mayo a full month away, shippers should have ample time to ramp up supplies between holidays, Wedin said. Mexican production typically drops in half in the week leading up to Easter because of workers taking time off, he said.
“There are times when they’re too close, but this one is pretty comfortable.”
Lucy, however, said he’d prefer Easter to be just two or three weeks ahead of Cinco de Mayo, instead of a full month. When they’re closer together, momentum generated at Easter tends to carry into Cinco de Mayo and subsequent spring holidays better, he said.
There’s some concern about the month gap between holidays this year, Lucy said.
Source: The Packer