by Andy Nelson, The Packer
With Peru expected to ship considerably more fruit this summer, many California avocado shippers will ship more early to take advantage of spring markets.
For the first three months of the year, California growers will likely ship twice as much as they did in the first three months of 2014, said Rob Wedin, vice president of sales and marketing for Santa Paula, Calif.-based Calavo Growers Inc.
And in April, May and June, he predicts industrywide shipments will be up to 40% higher than last year.
“The crop is (up) to 20% bigger, the mild weather has significantly impacted sizing and the flavor’s really good,” Wedin said Feb. 17. “Growers want to get going early, and the crop is cooperating. We’re converting customers to California as we speak.”
Ron Araiza, vice president of sales for Oxnard, Calif.-based Mission Produce, said that in anticipation of larger volumes from Peru this season, and because of late-season Mexican product, many California shippers are ramping up production in the March/April/May period.
“There’s value to shipping a little bit earlier.”
California should account for about 17% of an estimated 1.95 billion pounds of avocados that will ship in the U.S. in 2015, said Emiliano Escobedo, executive director of the Irvine, Calif.-based Hass Avocado Board.
This year’s California crop is getting off to a considerably earlier start, Escobedo said.
“It makes sense because Peru tends to come in with a lot of product when California is at its peak.”
Peru could ship between 190 million and 210 million pounds to the U.S. this year, Escobedo said, up from 141 million pounds in 2014.
Low rainfall will once again affect the California crop, said Phil Henry, president of Escondido, Calif.-based Henry Avocado Corp.
“We started out pretty good in December, then January was a complete bust and in February we’ve had almost nothing. It’s not as bad as last year, but it’s been below normal for the fourth year in a row.”
That means smaller sets and smaller fruit size, Henry said. Sizes should be slightly larger than last year, Henry said.
Henry Avocado won’t have to worry about quality this year, Henry said.
“It’s been terrific, great eating quality.”
In mid-February, Henry Avocado was taking its time getting going. Size-picking for 48s would mean a lot of 60s would get picked, too.
“We’re cautious about picking too much now,” Henry said Feb. 16. “It will be mid-March before we significantly increase.”
Promotional volumes should be available by Cinco de Mayo, Henry said.
After a very strong Super Bowl, Mission Produce is looking forward to a similarly strong Cinco de Mayo, Araiza said.
With Mexican fruit size a bit on the small side in February, opportunities were opening for California growers for fruit size-48 and larger, Araiza said.
In mid-February Mission Produce was size-picking for 48s and a few 40s.
“There’s a good market for 48s and larger now,” said Araiza, who expects that trend to continue into the spring.
Wedin agreed, saying that as of mid-February, many Mexican growers were strip-picking, whereas California growers were size-picking abundant supplies of 48s.
Markets will likely stay where they were in mid-February or strengthen a bit as California volumes ramp up, Henry said.
The California Avocado Commission is forecasting a 327 million-pound crop.
The estimate covers the 2014-2015 fiscal year. If realized, it would surpass last year’s 297.5 million pounds but fall well below the huge 2012-2013 crop of 500.2 million pounds.
“Some crop damage due to cold weather did occur around the New Year, but its impact is expected to be less than 5% of total production,” commission president Tom Bellamore said in a news release. “We have been sampling the early season fruit and the appearance and flavor are outstanding.”
A Dec. 31 storm brought up to 6 inches of snow to parts of Riverside County. That storm affected production in and around Temecula.
The Irvine-based commission expects volume to build through March, with promotable volume beginning in April.
Source: The Packer